Tax Blog

More Coronavirus Relief, Plus Beefed-Up Security for Technology, the Elderly, and Children Born to U.S. Citizens Serving Overseas

HR 748, S 893, S 1822, HR 4344, HR 4803Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (HR 748) – This legislation provided $2 trillion of stimulus relief in response to the coronavirus crisis. Provisions of the bill include:

  • $1,200 for each American making up to $75,000 a year
  • Additional $600 a week in unemployment benefits for up to four months
  • $100 billion available for hospitals and health providers; increase Medicare reimbursements for treating COVID-19
  • $750 million for food banks and food assistance to American Indian reservations, Puerto Rico and other territories
  • $500 billion in loans or investments to businesses, states, and municipalities
  • $32 billion in grants to the airline industry
  • Relief for homeowners with federally backed mortgages
  • Delay for student loan payments

This bipartisan bill was signed into law by the president on March 27.

Secure 5G and Beyond Act of 2020 (S 893) – Sponsored by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), this bill authorizes the development of a strategy to secure and protect next-generation mobile telecommunications (5G) and future generations systems and infrastructure within the United States. These protections should include assistance via mutual defense treaty allies, strategic partners, and other countries to maximize security and operations, as well as protect U.S. competitiveness, consumer privacy and the integrity of regulatory bodies. The bill was introduced on March 27, 2019, and signed into law on March 23, 2020.

Broadband DATA Act (S 1822) – Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) introduced this legislation on June 12, 2019, and it was enacted by the president on March 23, 2020. The Act mandates that the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) change the way broadband data is collected, verified, and reported. Going forward, the FCC must collect and distribute broadband maps from wired, fixed-wireless, satellite, and mobile broadband providers by establishing the Broadband Serviceable Location Fabric (a dataset of geocoded information for all broadband service locations) as the centralized vehicle for reporting broadband service availability data.

Supporting Older Americans Act of 2020 (HR 4344) – This bill supports programs relating to care for the elderly, as administered by the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Labor. It reauthorizes funding through the fiscal year 2024 for informational services, such as pension counseling; nutritional services, such as meal delivery; disease prevention and health promotion services; community and workforce training for elder care; promotion of independent living and the reduction of social isolation for the elderly; as well as prevention services for abuse and neglect. The bill was introduced by Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR) on September 16, 2019, and signed into law by the president on March 25, 2020.

Citizenship for Children of Military Members and Civil Servants Act (HR 4803) – This bill was introduced on October 23, 2019, by Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY). In an effort to clarify a rule change initiated by the Trump Administration, this bipartisan legislation guarantees citizenship for anyone born to a U.S. citizen parent stationed overseas, including military members and federal workers. The new law does not apply to children born to non-U.S. citizens stationed overseas working in a role on behalf of the United States.

Six Industries Hiring During the Shutdown

Six Industries Hiring During CoronaVirusDuring the government shutdown as a result of COVID-19, sadly, millions have lost their jobs. However, there is a silver lining: there are some industries that, because of the shutdown, are actually hiring. Here are a few leads to help those who might have been affected.

Shipping and Delivery

This industry is hiring at what seems like warp speed. It’s reported that Amazon has created 100,000 jobs, specifically for fulfillment and delivery. UPS is hiring, as are courier services. Search “courier services hiring near me” to find opportunities. You might be surprised by what you find.

National Retailers

In addition to Amazon, there are other giants that are hiring, including CVS, Kroger, and Walmart. See the entire list here. The National Retail Federation also has a good list, which includes GE Healthcare, The Home Depot, and Instacart (the latter is a big one, as many don’t want to darken the doors of grocery stores). Access everything here.

Online Learning Companies

Now that scores of kids are at home, teachers are in demand to assist with online learning. Outschool is hiring thousands of teachers. GetEducated is also a great resource for finding a list of companies that are looking for online teachers. And if you’ve always wanted to be a teacher, now’s a good time as any because you can earn online credentials. The world always needs great educators!

Remote Meeting and Communication Companies

Since many companies must conduct business remotely, outfits such as Zoom, Slack, and Microsoft Teams are hiring. Furthermore, since aspects of COVID-19 are still unfolding and may require a longer stint of working at home, these companies could be hiring for a good while, meaning this burst of openings might not be just a flash in the pan.

Childcare

Now that many parents are working from home, they still need childcare. Though our situation changes daily, the California governor announced that schools likely won’t open before fall. Think about opening up your home with affordable, flexible options. It could become a whole new business for you.

Healthcare

While this might not be the first choice for some, it is a sector that’s hiring, not surprisingly. According to an article on LinkedIn, healthcare job postings spiked 35 percent compared to just a few months before the shutdown. Demand is intense in New York and New Jersey. However, California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona are growth markets as well. Check out your local hospitals or freestanding care clinics.

Think Outside the Box

Right now during a pandemic, there’s no shame in taking a job for which you might not be a perfect fit, or even overqualified. Money is money. However, if you feel you need to learn skills for a particular job or if you want to learn something new just because, now is the time to do so. Want to learn to code? Try your hand at the GRE? Pick up an online credential? There’s no time like the present. Go for it!

Sources

https://www.themuse.com/advice/industries-hiring-during-coronavirus-outbreak

https://www.fastcompany.com/90478987/who-is-hiring-during-the-coronavirus-try-these-industries-if-you-need-a-job-now

https://wccoradio.radio.com/articles/radiocom/list-of-companies-hiring-during-the-covid-19-outbreak

https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/03/31/websites-to-find-work-from-home-jobs-hiring-during-the-covid-19-crisis/#26d899d23c43

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/these-companies-are-hiring-right-now-even-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html

Prospects for Investing in the 2020s

Investing in the 2020The third decade of the 21st century started out with a vigorous economy, record low unemployment levels, and benign inflation. But late in the first quarter over the span of two weeks, investors faced the fastest stock market correction in history.

With an unpredictable assailant like a global virus, short-term actions by Congress and the Federal Reserve will need time to see if they are effective. Ultimately, the fate of the U.S. and global economies, which in turn will impact the investment markets, is dependent on how long the COVID-19 outbreak continues and if there is a second wave. Clearly, both supply and demand have been dramatically reduced, with a ripple effect on companies, workers, consumers, and investors. Once the crisis has passed, we will learn which sectors, industries, and individual companies remain financially viable with a business model built to sustain this unprecedented economic fallout.

Amid this backdrop, wealth managers must read the tea leaves to anticipate what the investment markets will look like post-coronavirus. The challenge is how to best position assets to take advantage of future gains without giving up ground now and turning paper losses into permanent shortfalls.

For individual investors, it comes down to what you want to accomplish in the next decade – or what your money can accomplish for you. Are you nearing retirement? Will you remain in the accumulation phase, wherein you can afford to take on market risk? Are you just starting out, and are you risk-averse due to the two major economic declines experienced in your relatively short life, or are you prepared to invest in future prospects – wherever they may lie?

Anyone already in or nearing retirement would do well to invest for a steady stream of income. While the DJIA initially took a beating, many blue-chip stalwarts continue to grow and payout dividends as they have long term, through thick and thin. However, pay attention here, as there are some long-standing dividend-paying companies that are starting to suspend or substantially cut dividend payments.

Growth-oriented investors would do well to look at companies that were well-positioned to survive the pandemic, because they may well represent commerce of the future. This includes the well-established FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), which have become masters of fast and reliable delivery of online content and physical delivery of essential and discretionary products. Unfortunately, the stock prices of these companies have soared in recent years, so it’s time to consider what the “next big thing” in this arena will look like and who are the frontrunners.

With that in mind, take a look at 2020 demographics. Millennials recently surpassed Baby Boomers as the largest generation in the United States, but they aren’t expected to hold this mantle for long. Generation Z/Centennials are on track to enter the workforce in higher numbers during the next decade. This is a generation that has never known life without cell phones and the internet, so expect the technology sector to ramp up not just with consumer innovations, but with ways to help other industries enhance data management, blockchain supply chains, and artificial intelligence – which might become as omnipresent as retail strip malls.

In a post-pandemic world, employers seeking to strengthen their business models might come to embrace the idea of foregoing healthcare and other expensive benefits offered to employees. A subsequent world of higher pay and more public options could spur the growth of entrepreneurship and new small businesses. By taking advantage of remote employees, low overhead expenses, and emerging technologies, smaller companies or conglomerates might be able to compete with the likes of Amazon in both domestic and global markets.

As a short-term precaution, consider how you might defend your portfolio against the possibility of inflation as we stumble out of the pandemic economy. The federal government’s generous stimulus packages combined with a continued easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could lead the United States to higher inflation. This could be exacerbated by the recent shutdown of production in many industries; the initial low supply of products also might contribute to price escalation. During this interim, investors may want to consider investing in commodities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities for inflation protection.

As always, it’s best to seek the advice of a professional in this ever-changing environment.

How Will U.S. Employment Figures, Coronavirus Impact Job Markets?

How Will U.S. Employment Figures, Coronavirus Impact Job Markets?With the CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security) signed into law by President Trump on March 27, this set into motion major initiatives by the U.S. government in response to the coronavirus’ economic impact. This Act provides $2 trillion in financial aid to the nation, in big part to soften the impact of the coronavirus’ hit to the country’s unemployment numbers.

For the week ending April 11, seasonally adjusted jobless claims came in at 5,245,000, a drop of 1,370,000 from the April 9 revised level of 6,615,000, according to an April 16 news release from the U.S. Department of Labor.

For the week ending April 18, seasonally adjusted initial claims were reported at 4,427,000, or 810,000 fewer than the prior week’s revised level, according to an April 23 news release from the U.S. Department of Labor. April 11’s adjusted level was lowered by 8,000 to 5,237,000, down from the original 5,245,000 figure.

Taking into account the cumulative unemployment claims over the past five weeks, there have been approximately 26 million workers in the United States put out of work due to the coronavirus and the resulting economic downturn. With the employment picture facing a grim reality, the CARES Act provides many relief programs.

One part of the law provides financial relief for individuals, families, and businesses. Highlights include direct payments of $1,200 for individuals making up to $75,000, $112,000 for heads of households, and $150,000 for joint filers. Enhanced unemployment benefits also are included in the law to help those who are laid off, including contract workers.

Another way the CARES Act helps stimulate the economy is through the Paycheck Protection Program. Funded at $349 billion, this SBA-backed loan is designed to offer financial help to struggling businesses impacted by the coronavirus. A key aspect of this program is to give businesses enough money to pay at least eight weeks of payroll and related expenses to increase their chances of staying in business.

Factors for eligibility to apply for PPP loans include companies that are able to demonstrate their business has been reduced by Covid-19 and have less than 500 workers on their PPP application. Examples of eligible businesses/individuals include independently-owned franchises, contractors/self-employed individuals, tribal businesses, hotels, and restaurants. Eligible companies are able to have their loans forgiven, up to $10 million if they are borrowed from an SBA-approved 7(a) lender.  

According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, loans may be forgivable if the following criteria are met. No less than 75 percent of the loan is to be used for payroll costs, at which payroll costs on a 12-month basis are maxed out at $100k. Other allowable loan funds, up to 25 percent of the loan proceeds, can be used to pay for rent, utilities or mortgage interest. However, if full-time staffing is reduced or if the salary is reduced by more than 25 percent for full-time employees making less than $100k per 2019’s salary, PPP borrowers may owe money back. However, if any disqualifying changes that occurred between Feb. 15 and April 16 are made whole by June 30, the loans can become re-eligible to be forgiven.

Economic Injury Disaster Loan

Another significant relief program the CARES Act provides in the way of economic relief is through the Economic Injury Disaster Loans program (EIDL). The EIDL program is generally for businesses with 500 or fewer employees, whereby the company can apply to borrow as much as $200k. Loans up to $25,000 require no collateral, and requests above $25,000 require only business assets to serve as collateral.

One significant provision of the EIDL is what’s referred to as the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Emergency Advance. This enables applicants of the EIDL to receive as much as $10,000 in relief that’s not required to be paid back, creating a de facto grant, per the U.S. Small Business Administration. Businesses can receive as much as $1,000 per employee, up to $10,000, based on the number of workers a business employs. Depending on how extensive a business has suffered economically, a maximum of $2 million can be borrowed by a business through EIDLs and/or physical disaster loans, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration.

With these and other domestic government stimulus programs, coupled with other countries implementing their own stimulus programs, it’s worth noting different potential outcomes depending on the pandemic’s severity and health mitigation factors. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the following are some forecasts on how Covid-19 is likely to impact the global economy:

  • While the coronavirus data from China has been questioned, the OECD says that assuming the infections from the coronavirus peak during Q1 in China, the world’s economy is expected to grow less than projected for 2020, dropping to 2.4 percent from 2.9 percent. And while China’s economy is expected to drop below 5 percent in 2020, the country is expected to exceed 6 percent growth in 2021.
  • The OECD also noted that with a pandemic lingering longer and with greater intensity throughout the Asia-Pacific region, North America and Europe, it projects worldwide growth to drop to 1.5 percent in 2020.

Only time will determine how much of an impact the coronavirus will have on global markets. Governments around the world will continue to do their part to mitigate negative impacts.

Understanding the High-Low Method

Cost Accounting High-Low MethodWhen it comes to cost accounting, the high-low method is an approach that’s used to break mixed costs into either a variable or fixed cost. Although it’s straightforward, it’s important to do multiple analyses because outlier costs from the available data can sometimes misconstrue operating costs. This calculation occurs by looking at the periods with the most and least activity, as well as the total costs for both the high and low periods.

In order to get results for the high-low method, the variable cost and the fixed cost must be determined first. Once these are established, they are entered into the cost model formula.

Variable Cost is determined as follows:

VC = Highest Activity Cost – Lowest Activity Cost / Highest Activity Units – Lowest Activity Units

The next step is to calculate the Fixed Cost as follows:

FC = Highest Activity Cost – (VC x Highest Activity Units)

Now that the fixed and variable costs are known, the high-low cost can be determined:

High-Low Cost Model = Fixed Cost + (Variable Cost x Unit Activity)

Understanding it Through a Real-World Example

Looking at a furniture manufacturer, it’s good to focus on one product to see how the high-low method works:

The first step is to list production that includes each month, the product produced (let’s say it’s tables), and how much it cost to produce all tables each month. The list could be as follows:

Months Units Produced Total Cost ($)
January 153 6,650
February 106 5,653
March 120 6,185
April 126 6,120
May 100 4,888
June 133 6,650
July 113 5,852
August 93 4,988
September 153 6,783
October 166 7,382
November 146 6,783
December 160 7,581

The greatest output or activity for the furniture store happened in October when it produced the highest number of tables: 166 at a cost of $7,382. In August, the furniture store produced the fewest number of tables at 93, manufactured at a cost of $4,988.

Even though the cost may not be the greatest for the peak and valley of production, the corresponding costs for those respective figures is what will be used.

Now that we’ve identified the relevant data, the first task is to determine the variable cost.

VC = Total Cost of High Activity – Total Cost of Low Activity / Highest Activity Unit – Lowest Activity Unit

VC = $7,382 – $4,988 / 166 – 93  

VC = $2,394 / 73 = $32.80 per table

Then fixed costs must be calculated:

Total Cost = (VC x Units Produced) + Total Fixed Cost

$7,382 = ($32.80 x 166) + TFC

$7,382 = $5,444.80 + TFC

TFC = $7,382 – $5,444.80 = $1,937.20

It’s important to remember that variable costs are per unit.

Now that we have the total fixed cost, we can then create the total cost equation:

Total Cost = Total Fixed Cost + (VC x Units Produced)

Total Cost = $1,937.20 + ($32.80 x 166) = $7,382

This demonstrates the comprehensive costs for the tables made by the furniture store.

Further Considerations

The high-low method is a quick way to analyze costs. Since it only necessitates the peak and lulls of production data and costs, it can be done more often, along with helping companies plan with limited data to estimate future unit costs.

It’s important to run multiple types of cost analysis because high and low measurements might not give a full picture of costs. Although these two data points may not be the best overall picture of costs a business experiences at those volume levels, it can be an effective measurement until more data becomes available.

Be Right About Free Money: Potential Legal Risks of the Paycheck Protection Loan Program

Paycheck Protection Loan ProgramOne of the most important provisions of the CARES Act for small businesses is called the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The PPP is a $349 billion program designed to assist small businesses (fewer than 500 employees) facing financial difficulties as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic through specifically structured loans.

The loan program offers funding to cover payroll for up to eight weeks, with the intent of stemming from unemployment. These loans can be forgiven and essentially become a grant if your business meets certain criteria with no need to repay the money.

As the old saying goes, there’s no such thing as a free lunch – or in this case, free government money. There are potential legal risks that could jeopardize the forgivability of the loan.

Conditional Grants

Another way to look at the PPP loans is as conditional grants. The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) notes that loans will be forgiven in full if the funds are used for appropriate costs. Covered costs include payroll, mortgage interest, rent and utilities. Further, the payroll costs must account for at least 75 percent of the loan proceeds used. The employer needs to maintain or quickly rehire employees and maintain wage and salary levels in order to receive 100 percent forgiveness.

The Devil’s in the Certification Details

The loan application process requires certain certifications. Businesses that are still operating need to certify that the current economic uncertainty makes the loan necessary to keep operations going.

If this seems vague, it’s because it is. There probably isn’t a small business out there that is not facing significant uncertainty in the current climate. The problem is that the certification standard the PPP lays out is extremely subjective. As a result, with the encouragement for businesses to apply, many may do so under the impression that they will have their loan fully forgiven to only run into trouble later if they don’t meet the certification standards.

Legal Risks

By not providing any definition about the nature or extent of the required impact to operations that would make the loan request “necessary to support ongoing operations,” the SBA is making both applicants and lenders apprehensive.

Some law firms are even warning clients via their newsletters about potential legal exposure under the False Claims Act (FCA). Legal counsels are cautioning that a misrepresentation included in an application could result in FCA liability. Businesses must navigate between being as aggressive as possible to bolster their application while staying within the rules of the program.

More Certification Guidance is Needed

The government agencies involved need to provide more clear and objective guidance on the conditions needed to meet the certification requirements of the loan application process. Without clear and definable guidance as to what constitutes facing economic uncertainty, small businesses could face problems in the future.

Objective criteria such as a percentage of revenue decline or order capacity would provide a rather bright-line test and give both guidance to businesses and confidence in the process. 

Focused Almost Exclusively on Mitigating the Health and Economic Impact of the Coronavirus

HR 6074, HR 6201, HR 4998, S 3548Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020 (HR 6074) – Introduced by Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY), this was the first bill passed to authorize funding in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. It was introduced on March 4 and signed into law on March 6. The legislation provides $8.3 billion in emergency funding for federal agencies to respond to the coronavirus outbreak. It includes appropriations for the Department of Health and Human Services, the State Department and the Small Business Administration for the development, manufacture and procurement of vaccines and other medical supplies; grants for state, local and tribal public health agencies and organizations; loans for affected small businesses; evacuations and emergency preparedness activities at U.S. embassies and other State Department facilities; and humanitarian assistance and support for health systems in affected countries.

Families First Coronavirus Response Act (HR 6201) – Introduced by Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY) on March 11, this bill authorizes funding and support for Americans suffering from the consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak. Specifically, the legislation includes allocations for: 1.) $500 million to provide access to nutritious foods for low-income pregnant women or mothers with young children who lose their jobs or are laid off due to the COVID-19 emergency; 2.) $400 million to assist local food banks to meet increased demand for low-income Americans during the emergency; 3.) approve state plans to provide emergency food assistance to households with children who would otherwise receive free or reduced-price meals at school; 4.) $100 million for nutrition assistance grants to Puerto Rico, American Samoa and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands; 5.) $82 million to cover the costs of COVID-19 diagnostic testing for beneficiaries receiving care through the Defense Health Program; 6.) $15 million for the IRS to implement tax credits for paid sick and paid family and medical leave; 7.) $64 million for the Indian Health Service to cover the costs of COVID-19 diagnostic testing; 8.) $250 million for the Senior Nutrition program to provide additional home-delivered and pre-packaged meals to low-income seniors; 9.) $1 billion to reimburse the costs of COVID-19 diagnostic testing and services provided to individuals without health insurance; 10.) $60 million to cover the costs of COVID-19 diagnostic testing for veterans. The Act also includes provisions to enhance unemployment insurance and increase federal Medicaid funding. This legislation passed in both the House and Senate and was signed by the president on March 18.

Secure and Trusted Communications Networks Act of 2019 (HR 4998) – This legislation prohibits the federal government from obtaining communications equipment or services from a company that poses a national security risk, such as from the Chinese company Huawei Technologies. The bill also establishes a reimbursement program to supply small communications providers with funds to replace this type of prohibited equipment or services from their networks with more secure options. The Act was introduced on Nov. 8, 2019, by Rep. Frank Pallone Jr (D-NJ) and signed into law by the president on March 12.

Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (S 3548) – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) introduced this legislation on March 19. The bill is designed to address the economic impact of the coronavirus by providing direct cash payments to Americans, loan guarantees for impacted businesses and more resources for testing and development of vaccines. The current version of the bill includes: 1.) a substantial boost in unemployment insurance benefits (expanded eligibility and an additional $600 a week for four months); 2.) $367 billion loan program for small businesses; 3,) $150 billion for state and local stimulus funds; 4.) $130 billion for hospitals; 5.) $500 billion lending fund for large employers – subject to independent oversight with exclusions for members of Congress and the executive branch. The bill is expected to pass in both houses and be signed by the president.

6 Financial Tips for an Emergency

6 Financial Tips for an EmergencyThe effect of the coronavirus on our lives is unprecedented. While we’re all sheltering in place while trying to manage our daily tasks, it’s undoubtedly taking a toll on us mentally, physically and financially. Here are some tips to help you weather this storm of economic uncertainty.

Get Started on Being Liquid

Experts suggest having three to six months of savings on hand. However, this might not be realistic for some. Don’t despair: start saving now. If your employer pays you via direct deposit, ask if they’ll deposit a percentage into your savings. If that’s not an option, have your bank withdraw a portion and deposit into your savings on payday. This way, putting aside money for a crisis will be part of your routine. Further, a good rule of thumb is to budget 50 percent of your income to essentials like housing and utilities, 30 percent toward non-essentials and 20 percent toward financial goals like savings and paying down debt. You can do this!

Analyze Your Expenses

Perhaps setting aside a small amount of money just won’t work for you. Mariel Beasley, co-founder of the Common Cents Lab at Duke University, an organization that aims to improve the financial well-being of low- to moderate-income Americans, suggests taking a hard look at your expenses.

  1. See if you can downgrade. For instance, consider getting a cheaper phone, cable or internet plan.
  2. Set up a restrictive budget. When it comes to discretionary spending, think about using a pre-paid card. You can reload this weekly. If seeing the green stuff actually leave your wallet helps you cut back, then a cash-only system might be a good solution.
  3. Try to find extra work. While this situation is causing furloughs in some industries, it might create jobs in others. For instance, Amazon is said to have hired 100,000 new employees. Research other companies that specialize in deliveries. Since everyone is homebound, this could pan out well — if you like this kind of work. If you do, remember your hand sanitizer, gloves and mask. If you don’t, scour the job boards in your area. You might be surprised at what you find.

Solutions for People Over 59

There is an upside to aging: you can make withdrawals from your IRA or 401(k) if things get really rough. However, Beasley suggests that you withdraw funds in small amounts. If you’re under 59 and really have no other alternative, you can withdraw from your retirement. But know that there will be penalties and taxes. However, in times like this, sometimes you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do.

Avoid High-Cost Credit Cards

While these modern conveniences can be lifesavers, the downside is high-interest rates. Apply for cards with lower rates; or even better, find those that offer balance transfers at zero percent for a limited time.

Disregard the Goal

Many financial experts say: keep your eyes on the prize – build your nest egg. But if you’re just getting started, it might feel overwhelming. Or, if you’re in the midst of a world crisis like we are now, it can feel doubly overwhelming. Instead, focus on saving a little at a time. Baby steps. Even having a small amount of money set aside can help in times of need, like buying groceries during a quarantine.

Ask for Help

If you’re really feeling the pinch, reach out to your landlord, mortgage lender, utility provider, credit card companies or anyone else you owe. In Seattle, the public utility companies are promising they won’t shut off services during this pandemic. The same might be true for your community. But the point here is this: make the call. Send the email. Propose a payment plan. It’s reasonable to assume that most people have a heart and don’t enjoy adding financial stress to the already difficult situation we’re in.

If you can’t apply any of these tips your present circumstances, don’t worry. Be well and stay safe. Perhaps when this passes, you might look back at these ideas and see which works best for you. Remember, we’re all in this together.

Sources

https://abc13.com/finance/financial-tips-to-help-you-through-a-pandemic-or-other-crisis/6021876/

The Economic Impact of Coronavirus

The Economic Impact of CoronavirusIn the days ahead, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely be described in economic terms as a Black Swan. This phrase is used to describe an event that: 1) was unpredictable; 2) causes severe and widespread consequences; and 3) in hindsight was determined to be wholly predictable.

What will be interesting going forward is how much the virus, and its impact on the economy and financial markets, ultimately affects individual portfolios. It’s worth noting that many economists spent the whole of 2019 cautioning that a recession and market correction was imminent. To what extent investors took heed and repositioned their portfolios is yet to be seen.

As predicted, the Federal Reserve might have already exhausted the tools it had available to prevent a further watershed in the markets. Initially, the central bank dropped the federal funds rate to zero and funneled money into the economy. In more recent weeks, its monetary policies have included aggressive purchasing of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, extending swap lines to foreign central banks, and propping up short-term corporate borrowing and money market mutual funds to help support lending to state and local governments. At first, these efforts appeared to do little to diminish the stock market slide, but the end of March saw a three-day rally with the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeing its biggest three-day jump since 1931.

On the fiscal policy side, Congress is rushing to pass monetary aid as well as stimulus and recovery funds for both individuals and businesses. However, these actions can do little to stop an airborne virus that continues to shutter jobs and businesses and threaten the viability of the country’s health care system and everyday life as we know it.

Portfolio Considerations

When it comes to your own financial risk, let’s look at first things first. For many investors, an initial reaction might be to panic sell holdings before portfolios drop any further. Unless your timeline for needing funds has accelerated, selling now is not generally advisable. What is important to bear in mind is that markets tend to recover quickly after the most significant market declines, so if you’re not invested during the recovery, any paper losses you’re experiencing now will be permanent.

It is worth taking a good look at your holdings to get an idea of what to expect. For example, companies that rely on global supply chains and offshore manufacturing will likely experience the most detrimental short-term impact from the pandemic. This means disruptions in technology, retail, auto manufacturing, travel and tourism, global delivery and oil prices.

On the other hand, the health care industry will likely see tons more investment and demand while the so-called FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) are poised for rampant growth – given the degree to which people are stuck at home using online and delivery services.

Bear in mind that if you make any changes to your portfolio in reaction to market volatility, take into consideration your long-term goals and financial security. The following are a few strategies to consider that could position your portfolio for subsequent growth – assuming you maintain a long-term perspective.

  • Use either spare cash, asset allocation rebalancing opportunities or automatic investment contributions to bargain shop for stocks with a strong track record that are likely to recover but are well-priced right now.
  • Now might be a good time to convert (tax-deferred) retirement account assets into a Roth IRA. By doing so now, when prices are at their lows, you’ll owe less tax at the time of the conversion – which you won’t have to pay until next year’s tax season. By that time, the market may have recovered, positioning your Roth for greater potential for tax-free growth and tax-free income during retirement.
  • Consider using a portion of your assets to pay a lump sum premium for an annuity contract in order to transfer market risk from your portfolio to an insurance company. An annuity is designed to provide insurer-guaranteed income during your retirement, so you can feel a bit better about maintaining an equity allocation during this volatile time until the rest of your portfolio recovers.

The spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus is likely to continue to drive investor uncertainty over the short term. The long term, however, is another matter. Just like the saying, “What goes up, must come down,” history has shown that when it comes to the stock market, what goes down inevitably goes back up. The question is just how long that will take. For now, this is one of those times when it’s handy to have a three-to six-month emergency cash fund available to cover expenses.

Understanding the Oil War between Russia and Saudi Arabia

Understanding the Oil War between Russia and Saudi Arabia, Oil WarOver the past six years, domestic crude oil has experienced a volatile ride. 2014 saw the emergence of American shale as producers were attracted to the $114 price levels. However, in 2016 the price for a barrel eventually fell to $27 as a global supply glut developed. 2016 also saw Russia and Saudi Arabia form an oil pact that drew together Russia and OPEC, leading to the so-called OPEC+ to navigate the global oil market. This agreement would eventually culminate into the current crude oil tensions that exist between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Through the early 2000s – up until the financial crisis of 2008 – increasing global demand accounted for the rising price per barrel of oil. After reaching a high of $147.27 the week of July 7, 2008, the financial crisis’ effects brought the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude down to a low of $32.98 in December of 2008, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, with the economy recovering through 2009, the price of WTI crude oil rose to the high $70s and low $80s.

After the world emerged from the financial crisis, world oil markets were rocked by geopolitical tensions from the political revolution in Egypt during January 2011, spiking the price of crude oil to $100 a barrel. Prices stayed in the $90 to $100 per barrel range, until the end of 2014. With increased production in North America, reduced demand from emerging economies and increased storage of crude worldwide, the price per barrel of crude oil in 2016 traded in the low $30s per barrel. The price of oil fell because Saudi Arabia attempted to flood the world market with excess oil to lower the per-barrel price to bankrupt the emerging U.S. frackers.   

In reaction to the low oil prices, OPEC and its non-OPEC oil-producing countries agreed to reduce their total output by 1.8 million barrels in December 2016, taking effect in January 2017. After OPEC reversed itself and increased output in June 2018, it again cut output for 2019. The price of WTI rose to the mid-$70s by October 2018, which can also be attributed to a drop in Venezuela’s oil production, and the re-introduction and increase in severity of sanctions against Iran.

A November 2018 report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) relayed that the U.S. produced 11.3 million barrels in August 2018. With the report’s news, additional Russian oil production and even some OPEC countries producing more, it brought WTI down to $51 per barrel. Fast forward to March 2020, with the coronavirus sending shockwaves and diminishing demand, oil prices fell.

This led to a meeting in Vienna on March 5 for OPEC and its (+) or other major oil-producing companies throughout the world to discuss production cuts in hopes of increasing the price of oil. During this meeting, OPEC and its (+) members discussed whether to reduce production by 1.5 million barrels a day through the end of June 2020. OPEC asked Russia and those (+) members to cooperate with the production cuts. However, on March 6, Russia did not agree to reduce oil production. This immediately dropped the price of oil by 10 percent.

With the coronavirus pandemic beginning at the end of 2019, manufacturing and transportation decreased, reducing the global thirst for oil. Based on these events, the International Energy Association (IEA) announced in the middle of February that global consumption would fall to 825,000 barrels per day.

Russia said that reducing production was premature because it was and still is uncertain of how the coronavirus will affect global oil prices. Additionally, they cited political instability in Libya, where approximately one million barrels per day were expected to be offline from production.

In light of the unknown extent of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on oil demand, Russia and its oil producers reportedly offered to maintain the existing 1.7 million barrels per day cut for the next three months that OPEC+ already had in place. However, OPEC didn’t agree to this offer.

Beginning on March 8, Saudi Arabia gave crude oil buyers discounts of between $6 and $8 per barrel to European, Asian and American buyers. This set a downward cascade of the price of oil, lowering Brent Crude by 30 percent and West Texas Intermediate by 20 percent.

Starting March 9, the drop in oil prices coupled with the global coronavirus pandemic exerted a major impact on world markets. Russia’s ruble dropped by 7 percent shortly thereafter. While the price of oil recovered a little after the impact, it set off a production war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Beginning March 10, Russia began pumping an additional 300,000 barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia ramped up its production to 12.3 million barrels per day, up from 9.7 million.

Impact on Markets

These two factors led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 1,300 points in pre-market trading on March 9, with the DOW ultimately falling 2,000 points during intraday trading. Along with NASDAQ falling by nearly 7 percent and the S&P 500 dropping more than 7 percent, global markets fared worse. This was evidenced by the Italian FTSE MIB Index losing more than 11 percent. 

Producer Implications

When it comes to how the crude oil war is impacting shale producers in North America, it’s important to note that prices of $40 per barrel must be sustained to keep producers afloat, according to consultant Enverus. However, production cuts are imminent at the bottom of the $30 a barrel price point, and there’s certainly no expectations of new oilfield development.

Based upon forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 2020 U.S. production of crude oil is expected to drop from 13.2 million barrels per day to 12.8 million barrels per day by December, finally leveling off to 12.7 million barrels per day in 2021.   

Much like the volatility going on with the coronavirus pandemic, global markets are also expecting further volatility for the world’s energy market.